In April of 2022, the Marin Wildfire Protection Authority Board approved a proposal by Sonoma Technology for a Wildfire Evacuation/ Egress/Ingress Risk Assessment. The project built dynamic models of wildfire spread, communications and transportation networks to simulate various wildfire evacuation scenarios in Marin County.
The first milestone of this project was a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-science in evacuation modeling and derive practical implications for Marin County’s preparedness efforts. The report draws insights from over 50 studies and summarizes findings from numerous events across the state, nation and the world.
The findings show that three major factors contribute to civilian fatalities:
1. Extreme fire behavior conditions
2. Failures or delays in alerting and communications systems
3. Delays in evacuee departure due to last-minute evacuation of inability to evacuate.
This review shows that in most cases, evacuation is the safest option for residents even if the roadways used for evacuation are impacted by nearby fire or smoke. To review the State-of-the-Science Report on Wildfire Evacuation, please click here.
